Billboard and Bullets and Soundscan Oh My! Cooking up the Charts

Billboard and Bullets and Soundscan Oh My! Cooking up the Charts
Average: 4.8 (349 votes)

Welcome to the number nerd thread, official home for all-things charts related. While this thread is, by design, quite focused in terms of topic, it is rarely "just the facts ma'am." Here you will find all nature of Renaissance nerds (™CathyM-K), being effusive and emotional, pragmatic and poetic, inquisitive and inspired by David Cook and the numbers that serve as benchmarks throughout his career.
 
We are descended from the original and epic David Cook: You Had Me at Hello thread at TWoP, and are therefore sister-thread to the DWoP thread here at DCO. We are set in our TWoPPy ways and thus prefer a certain posting etiquette to make this thread as readable as possible: Please use proper sentence case (no all-caps or no-caps) and proper punctuation. Also, we prefer an image-free thread so please disable graphical sigs when posting, and use links instead of embedded photos. Snark is always accepted in conjunction with numerical analysis.
 
Chart-watching is a jargon-filled hobby, and we use a lot of different industry terms, acronyms, and nicknames that can take a little time to get comfortable with. If you're confused about anything you read here, check-out the handy CJT Glossary, maintained by FolkFan. Still not sure what the heck we're talking about? Just post a question to the thread, or send a PM to LadyM for clarification.
 
Here's what you can expect here:

  • Mediabase updates on any tracks currently seeing radio airplay will be posted daily, with published chart positions released on Mondays.
  • Album sales estimates from Hits Daily Double are posted Fridays, Mondays and Tuesdays as they come in.
  • Official Soundscan sales reports for singles and albums are generally leaked on Wednesdays.
  • Billboard Charts are published on Thursday and generally leak late Wednesday.

Any other day? Come join the party for insights and analysis on industry trends, promotional strategies, comparing/contrasting David's success to other artists and past Idols, etc. So break out your spreadsheets and your dog-eared copies of 'Billboard's Guide to Hot-100 Hits,' 'cause it's gonna get analytical up in here.
 
Some helpful general resources for the purposes of this discussion:

How are sales? Has he gone Gold or Platinum yet? How is he doing on the Billboard charts?

How is DC faring on the radio?

Historical Charts/Graphs:

**************************************************************
A NOTE ON WEEKLY SALES FIGURES AND CHART PLACEMENTS:
We rely on the kindness of strangers to get updates on sales figures each week. These may come in the form of leaks from industry insiders, or from journalists and bloggers who may report the information, and we take what we can get. Unfortunately, we will not have access to weekly sales figures for songs (such as LO and TOML) that are no longer charting in the top 200 digital downloads. However, we are constantly seeking updated totals on these tracks, and will post them here when and if they are made available to us. If what you are looking for is not listed below, try reading-back a page or two to see if someone has posted it in the thread. Still not finding the numbers you seek? That probably means they have not been leaked or reported anywhere yet. ~LadyM
 
Sales for the week ending 6/28/09:
DCTR sold a rounded 6,000 (-27%). Total = 1,190,000
COME BACK TO ME sold a rounded 16,000 (-8%). Total = 232,000

Off-chart: PERMANENT - Last known total = 167,104
Off-chart: LIGHT ON - Last known total = 959,000 (as of 6/21/09)
Off-chart: TIME OF MY LIFE - Last known total = 1,210,000
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Comments for this Forum Topic

jung, the iTunes RSS feeds will change throughout the day, so what you see when you click on the link I provided, may not match what I reported. You just need to check to see if the datetime listed under each title is your current datetime, based on your time zone, in order to ensure that you are seeing current data. Any other datetime then that indicates that the feed is outdated. I'm sorry, if I'm not explaining it well enough. As of right now, DCTR is at #113 with 17 MJ albums ahead of it.

MaryG, to be honest, I didn't understand how to check if this is the last version, but I copied the datetime: Fri, 03 Jul 2009 10:27:13, is this older then yours?

Friday, July 3, 2009 - 14:02
jung:

MaryG, I only clicked on your link posted at 11:25.

>>>
jung, Itunes generally updates their feeds throughout the day, so what my feed showed at 11:25 AM is not necessarily current data. You need to look at the datetime stamp on the feed you are looking at, and if it is not current, then you can try changing the "sf=" number (for example, change sf=143441 to sf=243441, and so on) and refreshing the page each time, until it is. Sorry, I know it can be confusing. (BTW, I like the numbers you saw better than the ones I reported.)

Hey, y'all. Based on trends, I had been thinking #8 or even 7 for Windy on HAC by Sunday, but that's looking less likely right now. I'd still think by next week though.

--
CJT Glossary.

Magic Rainbow thread.y

"Theory of a Deadman perplexes me because I think they are mundane."

For the most part, I agree, but Not Meant to Be does have a fantastic, catchy chorus. It seems like CHR is as weird as AC. Who knows how they pick which rock songs will be the chosen few that they play- one of the mysteries of life.

--
"I like cats. You gotta work for their affection." -Terry the Blue Light Tech

On this mediabase chart from HDD he is closer to The Fray:
4 8 FRAY
You Found Me Epic 1734 1920 -9.7
9 9 DAVID COOK
Come Back To Me RCA/RMG 1668 1593 4.7

Then on this one from above:
1 5 8 FRAY You Found Me 2426 2696
9 11 9 DAVID COOK Come Back To Me 2305 2214

They measure different things, the one we look at is rolling the one from HDD is for the week. So he might just make it to #8 it will be close.

--
Now we are looking back, through wasted photographs
Blank pages filling up our past.......Souvenir
sky1234

Maize, great post. Theory of a Deadman perplexes me because I think they are mundane. Some critics have lumped David into that "generic Nickelback" category (unfairly), but I really do think Theory of a Deadman is a boring ripoff of Nickelback.

As for Windy's HAC placement, I thought it did hit #8 on mediabase. Maybe it's still #9 on mediabase and #8 on Billboard. Either way, it's close, and I think if we have some recurrents this week Windy could hit #8 or #7 on Sunday.

As for Windy's trending in NY & LA, I only have monitored yes.com, and that would be a slight down trend on 'PLJ where it was #1 on Wednesday. It's a big up trend on KBIG where it was #15 last night. LO has been stable on both stations for quite some time. It's played at least once, often twice a day, everyday. I have to check KBIG's own playlist, because they hadn't updated it in at leat 18 months the last I looked! I'm hoping they finally did.

--
"So take a minute just to breathe, and think of everything you wanted, and what you got instead"

MaryG, I only clicked on your link posted at 11:25.

Friday, July 3, 2009 - 13:42
jung:

Just saw DCTR at 107 on iTunes, with 16+1 MJ+J5 in front of it. Is it right?

>>>
My iTunes feed is currently showing DCTR at #111, with 17 MJ albums ahead of it

Just saw DCTR at 107 on iTunes, with 16+1 MJ+J5 in front of it. Is it right?

Windy is now sitting at #8 on the billboard HAC as I posted yesterday.

--
Now we are looking back, through wasted photographs
Blank pages filling up our past.......Souvenir
sky1234

Just for fun (my version of fun!), I checked the actual playlists at the websites for both KBIG and WPLJ. On KBIG, Windy is #11 and LO is #28; at PLJ, Windy is #5 and LO is #19. Unfortunately, I don't know if Windy is trending up or down on those playlists. If anyone has been monitoring either of those lists, please speak up.

I feel kinda guilty for starting the KOL discussion yesterday and then abandoning the board. Work and RL called! My opinion on Use Somebody vs Windy vs No Surprise is pretty similar to Scott's. Use Somebody has a very unique sound and KOL are not trying to be pop. No Surprise is in that middle ground and isn't edgy enough to get much traction (although I do see that NS has regained its bullet nicely today), same goes with Windy--straddling rock and pop (with a good dose of easy listening styling).

CHR only has room for maybe 3-4 rock songs on the top 40 at any given time, and it's a crap shoot as to which songs are going to resonate with the listeners and the PD's. I do see that Theory of a Deadman's Not Meant to Be is also getting some traction on Top 40. I suppose there's still hope for Windy on that format, but I'm not angsting about it or anything. Just observing.

I know that FolkFan had hoped for Windy to move up to #8 or #7 on the HAC chart by Monday, but that seems like a high hurdle, given the spincrease. I wonder if a lot of stations will do packaged programming for the 3-day weekend? All 80's, etc.

ETA: What Peach said. Thanks to all you guys for the daily info!

Just to let everyone know - I didn't have a YES report last night or this week because real life has intervened. I should be back next week.
 
WHAT??? Well, okay, we'll let it slide this week. But you know we're gonna have to dock your pay. Smiling
 
Seriously though, I don't say it often enough, but HUGE thanks to everyone (Jai, FF, MaryG, QJ, kitkat, Wavelength, Scott, LadyM and others) who have taken it upon themselves to track all sorts of media/data sources on a regular basis just so they can provide the rest of us lurking CJT lazy asses awesome numbery goodness each and every day. I usually have nothing helpful to contribute but check this thread religiously because it's sooooo good. You guys rock!!

Filling in for FF and the morning mediabase report.

CBTM Quickcut: AI up to 17.550 (+.078), 3597 total spins (+20), 231 on aC (+4), 2780 on Hot AC (+11), 566 on CHR (+4).

As for the charts CBTM is #9 on Hot AC with about 100 spins to get to #8 and 150 spins to get to #7. Both songs ahead of him are sliding to it is a matter of time.

On AC LO is #11 and a good spincrease. If trends hold, and this is AC so it could easily not, he should move up to #10 very soon. CBTM is #22 and looks to hold there for a little while.

Attn: Web Nerds - after a welcome absence, lasting just a few days, my spam filter issues are back this morning. : (

David's music is preceeded by 16 MJ albums and 27 MJ songs at iTunes this morning, while, elsewhere, DCTR has moved up one notch at Amazon, and has reappeared yet again at Walmart MP3. Here are all the updated sales rankings:

Currently at iTunes:
David's album is #116 on Top Albums list (#34 in Pop) on this feed:

http://ax.itunes.apple.com/WebObjects/MZStore.woa/wpa/MRSS/topalbums/sf=...

CBTM is not on the Top 120 Music Videos list, while CBTM is #111, LO (Album) is #377, and TOML (Single) is #755 on the Top Songs list on this feed:

http://ax.itunes.apple.com/WebObjects/MZStore.woa/wpa/MRSS/topsongs/sf=3...

In Pop, CBTM is #48, LO (Album) is #143, and TOML (Single) is #224 on the Top Songs list on this feed:

http://ax.itunes.apple.com/WebObjects/MZStore.woa/wpa/MRSS/topsongs/sf=1...

Currently at Amazon:
Amazon.com Sales Rank: #140 in Music (See Bestsellers in Music) (Up from #141)
#5 in Music > Alternative Rock > American Alternative > Post Grunge
#11 in Music > Pop > Adult Alternative
#85 in Music > Rock

Amazon single MP3 Top download rankings:

CBTM - #161
LO (Album) - #462
TOML (Single) - #1,196
TOML (Album) - #1,448

Currently, at Walmart:
David's exclusive track album is not on the Top Sellers list

Walmart MP3 Downloads:
David's exclusive track album is #69 on the Top Album Downloads list (Reappearance), while CBTM is #70 on the Top 100 Song Downloads list

Currently, at Target:
David's album is not on the Top Sellers list in Rock, and not on the Top Sellers list in Pop

Currently at Tower Records:
David's album is not on the Music Top 100 list

Currently at Best Buy:
David's album is #38 on the Best Selling list

Currently at Borders:
David's album is #128 on the Music Bestsellers Top 150 list (Down from #127)

Currently at FYE:
David's album is not on the Top Sellers list

Currently at Barnes and Noble:
David's album is not on the Music Bestsellers list

VH1 Top 20 Countdown:
CBTM (ydniW) was #3 on last week's show. (Come on guys, let's get David and ydniW back to #1!)
Link:
http://www.vh1.com/shows/series/top_20_countdown/vote.jhtml

AOL Streaming counts toward the Billboard Hot 100, so let's stream big here!
Links:
http://music.aol.com/song/come-back-to-me/11560011

http://music.aol.com/song/permanent/11632827

Here is another David Cook piece: http://blog.newsok.com/bamsblog/2009/07/03/bam-column-david-cook-plays-t...

--

--
Now we are looking back, through wasted photographs
Blank pages filling up our past.......Souvenir
sky1234

Delurking to jump in on this KOL, CHR convo.

Someone asked (Lil sparrow maybe) where is Saving Abel's newest single, or something to that affect. IMO, the reason that Saving Abel's newest single isn't doing well is because it had to follow "Addicted", that and well, everything else on their album is not the greatest. I know I own it, it is actually one of those purchases that I wish I would have rethought and just bought the single. Not to say it's a bad album, it's just.... mundane. Everything else sounds the same. There maybe 3 songs on the album that I can say that I "like", one was "Addicted", it is actually the only one on my mp3 player. Do you know what I do when it comes up? Skip it. Where as with KOL's album, there is that cohesiveness. Their album is great! I love it! Same with Shinedown's album. Love it! It flows. It's is on heavy rotation in my car.

See that is my problem with the music industry now. You don't have albums anymore. You have a collection of singles that is just kind of throw into album format. There's no rhyme or reason to it. Just kind of there.

*Retreats back to the Land of the Lurk*

Just to let everyone know - I didn't have a YES report last night or this week because real life has intervened. I should be back next week.

--
Jai_S .....It's not rock if it's not Red Bull and throaty passion.

This morning DCTR is at #114 with 16 MJ albums before it. CBTM is #115 with 27 MJ songs ahead of it. LO is #379, TOML is #711. There are plenty more MJ songs before each of those, but I quit counting.

JLG -- I completely agree about RXP's fit for DC, which is one reason I used a comment they made about AI a few weeks ago (they were quoting Gene SImmons, I think, regarding Lambert?) to try to open up some kind of discussion via email. No go -- they never replied. So maybe the email was never routed to the right person, which is possible, given that their methods of contact on their website were archaic, or it's possible that even the mention of AI means I am not cool enough for them to reply to.

I'd rather stick with the DJ who was nice enough to email back the next day, who's already demonstrated that he likes DC's music and person. Because really, at this point, for BBS, any airplay is good airplay. The rock stations will get on the bandwagon eventually -- this I do believe.

cimorene - The frustration I feel with RXP is that David would absolutely fit right in ,as many of their plays are even poppier than his most poppy song. Their play list spans many genres and degrees of soft and hard and in between.

As the Michael Jackson phenomenon persists, David's music is bested by 14 MJ albums and 27 MJ songs at iTunes tonight, still, DCTR has bettered its morning sales position there, and has also managed to move up again at Borders. Here are all the updated sales rankings:

Currently at iTunes:
David's album is #112 on Top Albums list (#32 in Pop) on this feed:

http://ax.itunes.apple.com/WebObjects/MZStore.woa/wpa/MRSS/topalbums/sf=...

CBTM is not on the Top 120 Music Videos list, while CBTM is #110, LO (Album) is #358, and TOML (Single) is #630 on the Top Songs list on this feed:

http://ax.itunes.apple.com/WebObjects/MZStore.woa/wpa/MRSS/topsongs/sf=2...

In Pop, CBTM is #48, LO (Album) is #138, and TOML (Single) is #194 on the Top Songs list on this feed:

http://ax.itunes.apple.com/WebObjects/MZStore.woa/wpa/MRSS/topsongs/sf=1...

Currently at Amazon:
Amazon.com Sales Rank: #141 in Music (See Bestsellers in Music) (Down from #129)
#5 in Music > Alternative Rock > American Alternative > Post Grunge
#12 in Music > Pop > Adult Alternative
#88 in Music > Rock

Amazon single MP3 Top download rankings:

CBTM - #227
LO (Album) - #491
TOML (Single) - #902
TOML (Album) - #1,375

Currently, at Walmart:
David's exclusive track album is not on the Top Sellers list

Walmart MP3 Downloads:
David's exclusive track album is not on the Top Album Downloads list, while CBTM is #72 on the Top 100 Song Downloads list

Currently, at Target:
David's album is not on the Top Sellers list in Rock, and not on the Top Sellers list in Pop

Currently at Tower Records:
David's album is not on the Music Top 100 list

Currently at Best Buy:
David's album is #38 on the Best Selling list

Currently at Borders:
David's album is #127 on the Music Bestsellers Top 150 list (Up from #136)

Currently at FYE:
David's album is not on the Top Sellers list

Currently at Barnes and Noble:
David's album is not on the Music Bestsellers list

VH1 Top 20 Countdown:
CBTM (ydniW) was #3 on last week's show. (Come on guys, let's get David and ydniW back to #1!)
Link:
http://www.vh1.com/shows/series/top_20_countdown/vote.jhtml

AOL Streaming counts toward the Billboard Hot 100, so let's stream big here!
Links:
http://music.aol.com/song/come-back-to-me/11560011

http://music.aol.com/song/permanent/11632827

1. Yay for an HAC add!

2. I am actually finding the KOL conversation encouraging, since this is far from their first album and RCA clearly stuck with them and pushed them when the time was right. So that bodes well for how RCA deals with acts that are promising, but not breaking big on pop right away. It also serves as a good test case for how the path to mainstream success can be long for rock acts.

3. WOOOOOOO.... #8!!!!!!!!!! Adult Top 40 knows what's up. Smiling

The Billboard 200 DCTR #87, last week # 74
Hot Adult Top 40 Tracks CBTM # 8 last week #10
Hot Adult Contemporary Tracks LO # 13, last week #11

That is all the chart info I have access to today. Hopefully more info will be posted tomorrow.

--
Now we are looking back, through wasted photographs
Blank pages filling up our past.......Souvenir
sky1234

Just coming over from yes.com. with a post from jandcsmom.
There's an add on HAC for CBTM
KMHX, Santa Rosa

ETA: I just checked the Billie Jean (Studio Version) for views. It's popularity has declined slightly. Last week it was watched once every 12.61 seconds. Since Monday night it is now being viewed once every 14.02 seconds.
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=====================
42 ≡ 6 (mod 6) [Wavelength] Drop to your knees and remember where you came from this is the time to abandon hesitation.

I don't think there's any reason to be concerned aboutwhat RCA is doing with Use Somebody on CHR. The song topped alternative and rock formats for months, had made it to the Top 15 of ITunes, was very successful overseas, and was probably responsible was vaulting the album it came from into the Top 20 on BB for months. Whether you like KOL or not, that kind of stuff is worthy of some attention. The band and the song have been around for eons and earned this push. It doesn't mean that RCA can't or won't support David or that any kind of artist who crosses those benchmarks on their own isn't worthy of a push.

The truth is for every success story like Shinedown or KOL here there are casualties. What about the second singles by AAR and Saving Abel? Gone. Gavin Rossdale's second single? Gone. Fall Out Boy's second single? Gone. Racing up the HAC chart is not a given and neither is even making an appearance on CHR.
There are plenty of pretty well-known acts that don't manage it and having any kind of non-CHR format to back one up is pretty much a good thing.

cimorene

Maybe you should have attached a visual (you tube) performance of BBS .
To me that song sells itself when performed LIVE !!!

Thanks, QueenJ. I have high hopes that I will actually get a reply within a few days. The lack of one from RXP just adds another check in the yes column for the "are they snobs" question; but I knew there was a reason PLJ was my favorite radio station in the NY area *smile*. And their constant play of DC (as well as the obvious respect they have for him) means that if BBS will ever get spun on HAC, this is the one station that might do it -- and given their audience numbers, it could be a huge, huge deal. Also, I figure since Windy's been out for -- what, about 3 months? -- and is holding its own on that format, that trying to open the door to BBS at this point is no longer premature and unnecessary competition... especially since we're all guestimating that the next official single won't see the light of day for another month and a half, at the very least, and probably even more.

cimorene, I think you phrased the question great. Any sort of reply from the DJ would be great. Even if they can't or won't play BBS it would be interesting to know specifically why not. Anything that adds to our education and understanding of how this all works is beneficial.

To me is seems like KOL and Shinedown are the crossover darlings of this particular time frame. Songs that did well on the rock and alternative side and then got some attention from CHR. Much like that Mraz song that absolutely would not die last year. I actually wouldn't mind this strategy for the next DCTR single. It doesn't have to go for adds on CHR right away if they think the strategy to get it high on Hot AC and then move it over would be more beneficial. Not saying that it would but it is a strategy.

deleted because Lil Sparrow said it better in a later post.

--
Now we are looking back, through wasted photographs
Blank pages filling up our past.......Souvenir
sky1234

A local DJ commented that KOL are starting their own record label. So does this mean they will not be with RCA in the future? Or are they starting the label for other artists?

Tinawina, you are absolutely right. KOLs 2 current singles topped alternative rock. They've dominated both KROQ and KYSR in Southern California for months now. Big, big buzz. RCA's recent news releases have included David & KOL among their "hot new artists," and I have no doubt that they're fully committed to David, but I get the feeling (just an anecdotal feeling based on what I read and see) that RCA considers KOL their hottest up-and-comers. Again, I still think David is in great hands... but the track record that KOL has had on alternative rock and HAC is stellar and RCA is really pushing them. I have no probelms with it. This is KOL's sophomore album with RCA, and it's much, much better than album #1 (IMO), so they've been around the block before. Nice to see the label stuck with them... 'cause it's paying off in spades now.

KOL is a great band with tremendous industry buzz right now. They have been very successful overseas and Use Somebody topped one of the rock charts, didn't it? I think its one of those cases of the right song coming around at the right time. And good for them, because they sure deserve it!

Just commenting on one part of the top 40 pie the part about marketing, I think KOL are a good group.

--
Now we are looking back, through wasted photographs
Blank pages filling up our past.......Souvenir
sky1234

Well, I don't think it's just about the markerting. I think it's that the two current KOL singles - Use Somebody in particular - are effin' great. Great is great. Radio station PDs and the listeners are responding.

I won't give my opinion on the KOL song but I know that RCA put a lot of adds up on All Access right before it dropped and CBTM did not get the same adds for top 40 when it dropped. I am making no judgements about that I am just stating what I observed but I was not behind the scenes when CBTM was put forward as a single so I don't know what was done in regards to top 40, I am just commenting on the obvious which is the adds I saw on all access.

--
Now we are looking back, through wasted photographs
Blank pages filling up our past.......Souvenir
sky1234

I just thought I should inform you all about an ongoing exchange I've started with Race Taylor, DJ at WPLJ. He very nicely responded to my query about the latest DC interview being posted online (unlike the DJ's at WRXP, who completely ignored a question I sent thim weeks ago). I replied to thank him, and included the following:

I guess it turns out I did hear the whole interview, minus the first few seconds... but always nice to hear again, this time without kids screaming in the back of the car. Smiling

Thanks again, also on behalf of a whole bunch of Cook fans. You might guess he's got quite a following online, and we're all appreciative of PLJ's support of his music.

I might as well take the opportunity to ask, 'cause why not -- David also has another single that he released to rock radio (simultaneously with Come Back to Me), called Bar-Ba-Sol. It's probably one of the hardest tracks on his album, but it's really a great song. Is there any possibility that PLJ would ever play it? I realize it's the wrong radio format, but I do think it would actually fit in rather nicely with everything else you play on your station. I'd love to have and would certainly appreciate your opinion on this if you have the time to answer.

Hopefully he'll reply back and we might even get a sense of whether HAC will ever pick up BBS, as some of us (Scott, this means you) believe should happen. 'Cause I really think if it's going to happen, PLJ might be one of the best places to start, since they really do love DC.

I'd still like to know how those A&R guys at RCA got CHR sold on Kings of Leon. It's poised to break top 30 with a bullet of over 500 spins. I never thought that song would get embraced on pop, cuz that song is about as far removed from pop fluff as it gets. - Maizie

Well, I said this a week or two ago, and I'll risk tomatoes and say it again. That KOL song is, IMO, one of the best songs out there today. It's sexy, has great vocals, it's catchy, it's haunting. It's as good as the best tracks on DCTR. I think it is superior to CBTM, and superior to "No Surprise." I do NOT think it is superior to LO and lo and behold, LO hit top 20 on CHR! JMO, YMMV. I will add that if a song isn't typical pop with lots of gimmicks or production, it needs to be exceptional rock. KOL's "Use Somebody" is exceptional. I also think Shinedown's "Second Chance" is close behind. CBTM is a great song, but maybe it tows down the middle too much? Not pop enough, not rock enough. Just food for thought.

ETA: Ooh, the long delay on the site suddenly ended, and you get a whole formated page when you click edit! Looks like DCO got an upgrade.

Earlier may have been an anomaly at iTunes, as DCTR is up to #111 on the Top Albums list, with 16 Michael Jackson albums ahead of it, making its current net sales position there #95.