Thanks again for making the blog, there are a lot of good thoughts here. I'm not sure I'd rate FYE higher than you do, as a dance song it gets the job done and as a pop song it isn't annoying in a way you want to change the station, but is it a fantastic song, I'm not so sure. You know, I really don't know why certain pop songs are super successful and others are not. Seems like a lot of it is based on name recognition or the hook has to be totally stick-in-your-brain-drive-you-crazy (Womanizer, I Gotta Feeling) or provocative (like I Kissed a Girl or Don't Trust a Ho). Honestly I think it is more about timing and the money behind a song than the content of it, especially on the more pop side. Yes, a song that becomes a guilty pleasure or doesn't wear thin as quick gets good callout scores, hangs around and crosses over to Hot AC and becomes a bigger hit helps. But I don't know that I can predict a pop song to become a hit just by the hook. I know other people feel more confident in that type of analysis and they probably have better ears than me!
As far as timing, I think they learned something with Archie last year, they got his single out way too early. I know they were trying to cash in on his Idol buzz by getting something out by end of tour but Crush peaked before his album dropped and CHR wasn't warm to the subsequent single for whatever reason. I think partially because CHR doesn't have to love non lead singles (maybe the money isn't there or maybe they want a greater diversity of artists, I'm not sure but I see it over and over again that the lead singles do better by far on CHR) and also because they tried to launch a follow up single in the "dead zone" of early December. Radio wasn't interested, they tried again in January and CHR had moved on by then. Kris seems to be following David's timeline of release, lead single out 6 weeks ahead of album drop, adds date one month before drop. I worry about Allison because she has the least buzz, outside the Idol bubble appeal, media opportunities and she has a single dropping late and an album coming out after Thanksgiving. Not sure how that is going to add up to success. As for Adam, I think all the time and care given to cover designs and other things to raise his celebrity is a mistake. Radio is still the vehicle that makes or breaks an artist, it is what drives album sales and single sales. All the other "new media" ways to get exposure is nice but it has to be coupled with a successful radio campaign. I know a lot of songs are dropping soon and albums out in November so its not like the window of opportunity is closed, but the end of the year is essentially the end of November and the beginning of the "new year" is February so every artist has to be in a good position before the 2 month dark period on radio and the one month dark period on sales (Jan).
Daughtry seems like a special case, his album and single did drop on the same day in Nov of 2006, probably because RCA didn't know what to expect with him. He quickly got great radio play and the album went platinum right around the holidays. It must have been a perfect storm, a great song and radio was ready for the sound. And who knows, that can happen with anyone if the perfect song hits and the right time and blows up but in general it is going to be pretty hard for anyone to find that lightning in a bottle that Daughtry did with his first single and album.
One final thought, even though CHR is where it is at for immediate sales and response, the song is going to have to cross over to Hot AC for increased exposure and longevity. Crush was able to be a legitimate Hot AC and AC hit. I know those formats are not as "sexy" but they have a lot of spins and ears listening, especially Hot AC. So the problem with going too dance pop and rhythmic is that it may turn off those formats. It is scary to live and die by CHR because they seem so fickle. Either way it will be interesting to see how these new Idol singles and albums do, maybe one of them will defy expectations or perceptions.
Couple more thoughts...
Thanks again for making the blog, there are a lot of good thoughts here. I'm not sure I'd rate FYE higher than you do, as a dance song it gets the job done and as a pop song it isn't annoying in a way you want to change the station, but is it a fantastic song, I'm not so sure. You know, I really don't know why certain pop songs are super successful and others are not. Seems like a lot of it is based on name recognition or the hook has to be totally stick-in-your-brain-drive-you-crazy (Womanizer, I Gotta Feeling) or provocative (like I Kissed a Girl or Don't Trust a Ho). Honestly I think it is more about timing and the money behind a song than the content of it, especially on the more pop side. Yes, a song that becomes a guilty pleasure or doesn't wear thin as quick gets good callout scores, hangs around and crosses over to Hot AC and becomes a bigger hit helps. But I don't know that I can predict a pop song to become a hit just by the hook. I know other people feel more confident in that type of analysis and they probably have better ears than me!
As far as timing, I think they learned something with Archie last year, they got his single out way too early. I know they were trying to cash in on his Idol buzz by getting something out by end of tour but Crush peaked before his album dropped and CHR wasn't warm to the subsequent single for whatever reason. I think partially because CHR doesn't have to love non lead singles (maybe the money isn't there or maybe they want a greater diversity of artists, I'm not sure but I see it over and over again that the lead singles do better by far on CHR) and also because they tried to launch a follow up single in the "dead zone" of early December. Radio wasn't interested, they tried again in January and CHR had moved on by then. Kris seems to be following David's timeline of release, lead single out 6 weeks ahead of album drop, adds date one month before drop. I worry about Allison because she has the least buzz, outside the Idol bubble appeal, media opportunities and she has a single dropping late and an album coming out after Thanksgiving. Not sure how that is going to add up to success. As for Adam, I think all the time and care given to cover designs and other things to raise his celebrity is a mistake. Radio is still the vehicle that makes or breaks an artist, it is what drives album sales and single sales. All the other "new media" ways to get exposure is nice but it has to be coupled with a successful radio campaign. I know a lot of songs are dropping soon and albums out in November so its not like the window of opportunity is closed, but the end of the year is essentially the end of November and the beginning of the "new year" is February so every artist has to be in a good position before the 2 month dark period on radio and the one month dark period on sales (Jan).
Daughtry seems like a special case, his album and single did drop on the same day in Nov of 2006, probably because RCA didn't know what to expect with him. He quickly got great radio play and the album went platinum right around the holidays. It must have been a perfect storm, a great song and radio was ready for the sound. And who knows, that can happen with anyone if the perfect song hits and the right time and blows up but in general it is going to be pretty hard for anyone to find that lightning in a bottle that Daughtry did with his first single and album.
One final thought, even though CHR is where it is at for immediate sales and response, the song is going to have to cross over to Hot AC for increased exposure and longevity. Crush was able to be a legitimate Hot AC and AC hit. I know those formats are not as "sexy" but they have a lot of spins and ears listening, especially Hot AC. So the problem with going too dance pop and rhythmic is that it may turn off those formats. It is scary to live and die by CHR because they seem so fickle. Either way it will be interesting to see how these new Idol singles and albums do, maybe one of them will defy expectations or perceptions.